Arsip:

Working Paper

Climate Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Renewable Energy in the United States of America: Evidence from a Non-Linear Threshold Autoregressive Model

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and the demand for renewable energy in the United States. The primary findings suggest that there is a nonlinear threshold effect resulting from climate policy uncertainty, as measured by the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index (CPU) and the Environmental Policy Uncertainty Index (ENVPU), on renewable energy demand (REC). The findings indicate a negative relationship between the CPU and the REC when the CPU is beyond a specific threshold. This suggests that economic agents adopt a cautious approach, sometimes referred to as the “wait and see” policy, in their renewable energy allocation. In essence, customers may opt to reduce their utilization of renewable energy in favor of alternate sources as a means to circumvent the investment risks associated with renewable alternatives. read more

The Determinants of Financial Inclusion among Indonesian Muslim Households

Abstract

This study empirically examines the determinants of financial inclusion among Indonesian Muslims using individual-level panel data. We investigated financial inclusion indicators such as borrowing from financial institutions, bank account ownership, the borrowed amount, and savings in financial services. We analysed data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) fourth (2007) and fifth (2014) waves, offering a comprehensive dataset with unique socio-economic variables. We used Ordinary Least Squares and Logit estimations to identify factors influencing individuals’ access to financial services and the average borrowed amount. Our findings indicate that urban residents with higher wealth, predominantly males, have better access to financial services. Banks remain the primary source for loans among Indonesian Muslims. Access to commercial banks significantly impacts loan accessibility. Notably, Baitul Maal WatTamwil (BMT), an Islamic microfinance institution, enhances the probability of Indonesian Muslims accessing formal loans. read more

Labour Productivity while Working from Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This study aims to determine how the implementation of WFH (Work From Home) affects individual work productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. National Labour Force Survey (Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional/Sakernas) data for February 2021 were used in this study. In February 2021, the Sakernas questionnaire was added with questions related to the impact of COVID-19 on employment. This study used the instrumental variable analysis method, which accommodates the issue of endogeneity in the model and working in a crowded place (work_crowded) used as the instrument variable. The estimation results obtained through IV regression show that WFH significantly has a positive effect on work productivity. The group of respondents who implemented WFH in their work system, on average, has statistically higher productivity when compared to the group of respondents who did not implement WFH. read more

Are Households with Female Heads Really Poorer?

Abstract

The share of poor families with female heads of household is steadily increasing, from 14.41% in 2013 to 16.72% in 2019. This is in contrast to the declining poverty rate over the same period. We examine whether families with female heads of household tend to be less prosperous than those with male household heads using the wealth index constructed from the 2019 National Socioeconomic Survey data. In contrast to the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory, we find that households with female heads are more likely to be wealthier than those with male heads, even after controlling for sociodemographic factors of household heads as well as household characteristics. This finding sheds some light on the hypothesized feminization of poverty theory in the context of developing Asian countries. read more

Does Conditional Cash Transfer Have a Lasting Impact?: Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the impact of program cessation on the behavior of Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) beneficiaries. We utilize the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) models to overcome potential bias in the estimation results. We use household longitudinal data from the PKH implementation pilot study. The results show that program cessation has a significant positive impact on the share of expenditure on food and the probability of children not attending school, as well as reducing the share of expenditure on education. On the other hand, program cessation has no impact on the utilization of health services, the share of expenditure on health, and the share of expenditure on milk and eggs. These findings indicate that the impact of PKH on behavior related to health tends to continue, while for behavior related to education it does not. read more

The Relationship Between Risky Behaviors and Lifestyle and Socioeconomic Factors in Indonesian Urban Areas

Abstract

Assessment of determinants of risky behaviors, such as smoking, vaping, alcohol consumption, and drug abuse, is critically important to be conducted. Nonetheless, previous studies only looked at the role of socioeconomic factors and their relationship to risky behaviors in young people, but did not consider the lifestyle. To address this issue, we utilized microdata from the Narcotics Board of Indonesia (BNN), namely the Indonesia Urban Lifestyle Community Survey 2018, to determine which characteristics, in terms of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, are related to the conduct of smoking, vaping, alcohol consumption, and drug abuse among young adolescents in Indonesia. Using the logistic regression method, we discovered that risky behaviors are a vicious circle. Peer effect has been linked to a higher likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors as well as nightclub visits. Gender, education, and parental education were all significant socioeconomic factors for some behaviors. This result implies that the effort to alleviate the prevalence of risky behaviors must be integrated and comprehensive. read more

A Hazy Future: Exploring the Effect of Air Pollution on Child Development in Indonesia

Abstract

Air pollution is a significant issue in emerging economies like Indonesia, with detrimental effects on human health. This study aimed to analyse the impact of air pollution on child development, using various datasets and employing an instrumental variable approach. The findings revealed that an increase of 1 μg/m3 in regional PM 2.5 concentration had a significant negative effect on child growth, reducing height-for-age and weight-for-age scores by 0.08 standard deviations. No significant impact was observed on the stunting variable. The study also found that girls were particularly susceptible to impaired child development due to air pollution. These results emphasize the need for policies targeting air pollution reduction to support healthy child development, especially in low-income households. read more

Spatial Analysis of Youth Unemployment in Indonesia: Minimum Wages and Industrial Mix

Abstract

This study examines the spatial distribution of youth unemployment rates (15–24 years old) and the impact of wages and industrial composition on these rates in Indonesian provinces. The persistently high youth unemployment rate and uneven distribution of youth labor across provinces have motivated this research. Data from 2010 to 2018, sourced from Sakernas and other BPS publications, were analyzed for 33 Indonesian provinces.  This study employed Moran’s index and spatial panel data methods.  The findings reveal a clustered spatial pattern of youth unemployment rates among provinces.  best-fitting model, identified as the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with random effects, indicates that increasing the minimum wage ratio significantly contributes to higher youth unemployment rates. Conversely, higher real wages lead to a slight decrease, whereas greater industrial sector absorption reduces youth unemployment. However, increased absorption in the service sector amplifies youth unemployment read more

The Effect of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy and Their Interaction on Bank Risk-Taking in Indonesia

Abstract

We use the Indonesian quarterly bank-level data from 2009Q1 to 2021Q1 to investigate the effect of monetary policy, macroprudential policy, and the interaction between both policies on bank risk-taking in Indonesia.  Several important results emerge.  Firstly, we find evidences of the existence of risk-taking channels of the monetary policy in Indonesia, and that both bank size and level of capital have a relatively significant negative impact on bank risk-taking. Secondly, macroprudential policy tightening lowers bank risk-taking.  We also find that the interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy tightening lowers risk-taking. read more

Feminization U Curve: Structural Transformation Impact on Female Labour Force Participation in Asia

Abstract

This research aims to observe the relationship between female labour force participation with economic development and to test Feminization U Curve (FEMU) hypothesis in Asian countries for the period 1990-2018. FEMU model is estimated with static model Fixed Effect as conducted in the initial research and elaborated with dynamic panel model Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Overall, the static and dynamic model confirmed the U curve relationship between female labour force participation and economic development in accordance with FEMU hypothesis, thus female labour force participation decreases when the economy undergoes structural transformation from agricultural to industrial, and it will rise as the economy goes service sector. The hypothesis is also confirmed in the country-income categorized model. The U curve is more consistent in static model compared to the dynamic one. In addition to the structural changes that has been occurring, the dynamics of female labour force participation in Asia also can be explained with the decline in fertility rate and improvement of female tertiary education. read more